Beginner's Poker Blog

Poker Calculators

July 17th, 2008

PC Poker calculators are a valuable tool for beginning players. You are wondering just how much of an underdog those pocket Jacks are to an overpair or how far ahead 99 is to AK0? The poker calculator will run stimulations of various hands before the flop, as well as after the flop, turn and river.

Reviewing your play is made much easier and much clearer when you use a poker calculator. For several years the best available free calculator was Poker Stove and it is still the poker calculator of choice for many players. But as more and more poker websites wanted their own versions of the poker calculator, there have been advances to what they can calculate, how fast they do it and the simplicity of the software interface.

Our current favorite is found here, they have one for Texas Hold’em, another for Omaha Hi and one for Omaha Hi-Lo. This really is only one of dozens of calculators out there. Check out several to find the one with the interface and details you are most comfortable with.

One tip: some calculators offer a “Monte Carlo” option, which simply means that using the MC option will result in your getting your statistics with only about a million hands simulated instead of the complete run, which can go into the tens of millions and take a long time. Monte Carlo may tell you that you are a 53.2% favorite, when complete run would tell you that actually you are a 53.194% favorite. I think a million simulated hands is sufficient for our purposes.

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #151

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Poker Statistics #2

July 15th, 2008

Aces Here is another statistic about the pocket aces. At a full table of ten players there is a 1 in 22 chance that on any random deal one player will be dealt aces. Now since only one time in ten are those aces going to be yours, how can you use this statistic?

Well let’s think about this. When you are dealt pocket kings, there is a one in twenty-two chance you are facing pocket aces. Ouch! On the other hand, twenty-one times out of twenty-two you have those monster kings and you need to win some chips with those Big Boys.

Now be careful with this statistic (22 to 1) because … well let me show you. (Note: what follows is the faulty application of statistics)

If there is a 22-1 chance of aces when you have kings.

Would there be an 11-1 chance of aces or kings against you when you have queens?

Or would there be a 5.5-1 chance of aces, kings or queens against your pocket jacks.

Then it would be 2.75-1 that your pocket tens are beat by a larger pair.

You see where this is going? By the time you get to pocket eights, it would statistically guaranteed that there is a bigger pair out against you and you would never win with two deuces. NOT TRUE! Statistics can be our friends but be careful of stringing them out too far or you might actually believe that the poker gods really do hate you 54% of the time.

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #150

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TDA Rule #37 Showdown

July 13th, 2008

TDA Logo Tournament Director’s Association Rule #37: Showdown

At the end of last round of betting, the player who made the last aggressive action in that betting round must show first. If there was no bet the player to the left of the button shows first and so on clockwise.

This may seem just another etiquette rule but this one causes a lot of ill-tempered players complain. Here is the issue. Many players will muck their hand when they see they are beaten. However, if they called the final bet of the hand or checked down the river, then any player at the table may ask to see their cards. Many professionals will tell you that this is very bad form and that you should only ask to see a players cards if you believe they are guilty of some infraction.

The rule has not been clarified because the members of the Tournament Director’s Association cannot agree on which way the rule should read. So Rule #37 is at best only half a solution and is already on the agenda for the next Tournament Director’s Association meeting.

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #149

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Small Pocket Pairs: Part 3

July 11th, 2008

Four HeartsFour Spades OK, you’ve decided to see a flop with a small pocket pair; what exactly are your chances? No matter what pair you are holding the odds of flopping a set or even quads are 7.1 to 1 against you.

So what question should you be asking yourself before you make the call? It might seem obvious to simply ask yourself: “Is this hand worth playing if I am going to lay it down after 6 out of 7 flops?” You will nearly always fold to any bet after the flop when you pair does not improve. But the question is too simplistic for a good poker decision. Why? Well you might be laying it down 6 out of 7 times but if each of those hands cost you a single bet, then you have to ask: “How many bets will I win when I do hit my set?”

The key to winning when your small pocket pair turns into a set is simply that your hand will be well disguised. For example: you play 44 and there are two other players in the hand. The flop comes: A94. If even one of those other two player has a ace, you are going to make a lot with your baby set and if they get another ace on the turn or river, Jackpot! They have a set of aces and you have a full house!

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #148

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Small Pocket Pairs: Part 2

July 9th, 2008

Fives There is a substantial difference in how you should play small pocket pairs (SPP) in a cash game versus a tournament. In a limit cash game, SPP are long-term profitable if you are getting into the pot for only one or at times, in a multi-way pot, two bets. In a tournament, particularly a no limit tournament, you can cost yourself a lot of chips with a SPP with only a limited potential for gain.

In tournament action we often see players all-in in a “race” situation. One player has two high cards, often Ace-King, and the other player has a lower pair. The pair is slightly ahead in this race but it is barely 51%-49%. The question arises: “Do you want to risk your tournament on a coin-flip?” The answer usually is no. So playing SPP in a tournament, particularly in early position, where you are likely to be raised, is a risky situation.

Being out of the tournament is the worst scenario but another big leak in your game is to bet your SPP and then fold those chips to a raise. You are vulnerable with SPP to any raise. Why put in chips if you may not even see the flop? On the other hand, small pocket pairs cannot be discarded each time they are dealt to you, they do win hands; but you must have a plan of action or inaction before you peek at your hold cards. In a tournament, especially in the early rounds, caution and survival are wiser than risking your tournament life on those pocket fives.

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #147

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Small Pocket Pairs: Part 1

July 7th, 2008

Sevens We are going to be discussing small pocket pairs over the next several posts. Why several posts? You are going to see a lot of small pairs (22-77) and you are going to see them in a number of different situations. The results of playing small pocket pairs (SPP) is usually a small loss or a big win, unless you have not considered exactly how to play these hands. Without a plan for playing SPP, you will find them frustrating and costly.

We begin with the most dangerous situation: You are dealt a SPP in early position. Some professionals would tell you that you could easily be money ahead if you simply folded all SPP in early position. But this is poker, so how do you play them. Well, if you are at a passive table that will allow you to limp for only the big blind, then by all means play. Then check or fold if you do not make a set on the flop. However, if you are playing at a fairly aggressive table, one where a limp is likely to be raised; then you must either come in for a raise or fold these hands.

In early postion, if you can get into a pot cheap with a SPP, you will either lose the pre-flop bet when you fold after the flop or you will likely take down a large pot with your flopped set. AA or KK up against 55 is going to lose a lot of chips when the flop hits Q95. With caution small pocket pairs can be a winning hand for you; without a plan of action, you might as well throw them away.

-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #146

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July 5th, 2008

Big Slick

The most common beginner’s Hold’em question is: “What hands should I play?”

By now you already know the answer to that question must be: “It depends.” Depends on position, opponent, stack size etc. But let’s just answer the question from this point of view: “What are the best starting hands?”

There is general agreement on the top three tiers of “best” starting hands.

Group A: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs (Even here some believe AKo is actually better than JJ)

Group B: AQs, TT, AKo, AJs, KQs, 99 (Again some debate here, as some believe the bigger suited cards are superior to the smaller pairs)

Group C: ATs, AQ, KJs, 88, KTs, QJs (The debate here centers again on which are stronger pairs or suited overcards)

Group D: A9s, AJ, QTs, KQ, 77, JTs (We should add here that many feel small pairs 66-22 are more valuable in no limit games and less valuable in limit games)

After the agreement on AA, KK, QQ as the top three starting hands, very few agree on the “correct” order of the rest of the list and many would make this list a bit shorter or longer but you get the general idea.

-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #145

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Dominated Hands

July 3rd, 2008

AQ If you get all your money in the pot with AK and your opponent turns over AA, you are in deep trouble. You need two kings to win or perhaps QJ10 for the straight or perhaps a long shot flush. Dominated hands are those that are way behind like AK to AA. The most common usage of the term is attached to the situation where the two hands hold a common card and the other card is said to be “covered.”

So, AK dominates AQ and AJ and, in fact, any Ax hand except the dreaded AA. When the AK takes on AQ; the dominated AQ needs one of three queens or a very specific KJ10 for the straight. As a general statistical rule a dominated hand like this is about 4 to 1 to lose.

This is why caution is always a wise rule when your easily dominated hand is reraised after you put in an initial raise. By easily dominated we mean those hands that play well in a called pot but are often behind against the obvious “other” big hands. For example: King-Queen is a good starting hand but is dominated by AA, KK, QQ but more importantly AK and AQ both very common starting hands that will reraise you pre-flop and have you dominated.

-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #144

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The Coordinated Flop

July 1st, 2008

Flop A coordinated flop is any flop that makes a straight, flush, or full house posssible on the flop. Playing against a coordinated flop is much risker than a blank flop. For example, let’s have us starting with the biggest hand possible-pocket aces.

The flop is: JJ4. We are behind to any Jack and crushed by pocket fours.

The flop is: Q109. We are behind to Q10, 109, QQ, 1010, 99, J8 and we are definitely concerned about all the other hands holding any Jack or Eight.

The flop is: Jh6h2h and neither of our aces is the ace of hearts; now we are concerned about a made flush and/or the flush draw.

Sometimes you will hear the term semi-coordinated flop, which simply means two of the flop cards are either in order (QJ, 98 etc.) or one off (J9, 86), either way a straight is possible. The two card flush flop is also a semi-coordinated threat and of course any paired flop is a danger.

The simple idea is that coordinated flops are more difficult to play a big pair against unless your hand also has possibilities of drawing to a bigger hand.

-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #143

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Fancy Play Syndrome

June 29th, 2008

Fancy Play As we improve our poker game, we add more and more plays to our arsenal. At some point, usually about the time we advanced to a good solid intermediate player, many players run into Fancy Play Syndrome. This happens so often that we have a name for it. FPS happens when we let our “knowledge” of certain aspects of the game outweigh the common sense approach of playing to win. Fancy Play Syndrome is playing to be noticed, playing to show off, playing to upstage other players and almost always FPS results in losing.

Some examples of Fancy Play Syndrome are:

  • Betting when you should be calling
  • Checking when you should be raising
  • Calling when you should be folding
  • Overusing tricky tactics
  • Trying too hard to outplay every opponent every hand

Often times you can recognize FPS because it appears the player caught up in Fancy Play Syndrome is actually playing all of their hands backwards. Checking every strong hand to try and trap every opponent and inevitably letting them draw out on you. Or bluffing at every missed flop, the other players can’t always miss the flop just because you do. The other FPS problem that many players overlook is that for many advanced plays to work, your opponent has to recognize the play and believe you. Advanced plays often don’t work against weaker opponents.

The opposite of Fancy Play Syndrome is ABC poker and the way out of FPS is simply to go back to ABC poker. Once you are out of the woods, you can begin to add back the moves and plays you have learned but only when appropriate. Remember the winner is the player who takes home the money, not the one who looks good at the table.

-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #142

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