A key skill in poker is getting inside the head of your opponent, working out how he thinks and why he does the things he does.
If you’re trying to get inside the head of a competent opponent, it’s usually fairly easy to work out his thought processes. But it’s a different situation if you’re up against a weaker player. You can look at the line they took in a hand and find yourself scratching your head, thinking “why did he do that?”
This is one of the major differences between a winning player and a losing player – a winning player will have a reason for everything he does. His game is based around logic and reasoning whereas the losing player seemingly takes action at random, with no thought about what he is trying to accomplish.
Making mistakes
Now you might now say: “if the good player plays logically and the bad player is random, then surely the good player is easier to read and play against?”
This is a common fallacy but one that is easy to rebut. Winning poker is based around making mistakes. You want to make as few mistakes as possible while inducing your opponents to make as many mistakes as possible – in the long run, the most successful player will be the one who makes the fewest mistakes.
If you are taking an action with no logical reasoning (“feel” and “mixing it up” are almost never good reasons) then it is impossible to know whether you are taking the right action or are making a mistake. Forming a logical argument to support your actions is a way of ensuring that you make as few mistakes as possible.
Obviously we are not all perfect and our logic will often fail, but generally you will find that players make fewer mistakes when they can justify each action with reason rather than making moves at random. The more justification you can give to your actions, the more likely they are to be good moves.
A good, winning player can tell you exactly why he did what he did in every spot. Conversely, a weak player will often have no answer for his actions, which in turn leads to more mistakes and inevitably makes him easier to play against.
Worries
But if you’re being logical, isn’t there a risk that other players could easily pick apart your logic?
Well, for the most part, this isn’t an issue. Unless you’re on a table full of highly competent players, most of your opponents will only be thinking about their own cards.
While they may be making rudimentary attempts to work out your game, they will often be plagued with miscalculations and logical errors meaning that your best plan is just to use your reasoning to work out the make the most basic, profitable play.
As you progress, however, you will have to start bringing some deception into your game by balancing your ranges (balance is the technical term for “mixing it up”, an often overused and misapplied phrase).
An interesting example
Here's an example of a hand I played recently that shows both sides of this discussion perfectly.
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1320036 Hero is the author of the article.
UTG+2: $101.50
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00
CO: $45.20
BTN: $100.00
SB: $136.55
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $33.90
UTG+1: $40.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is Big Blinds and has two Kings.
7 players fold, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $7
Flop: ($18.00) (2 players left)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10
Turn: ($38.00) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22
River: ($82.00) (2 players)
SB bets $95.55 all in, Hero calls $59 all in
Final Pot: $200.00
SB shows 9 and Jack (a straight, Nine to King)
Hero shows King and King (three of a kind, Kings)
SB wins $197.00
(Rake: $3.00)
What I was thinking
In this hand, I had pegged my opponent as a weak player who was likely to call way too much.
My logical plan in the hand was to raise him preflop and bet until all the money was in the middle, knowing that the majority of the time I’d be good at showdown.
While his preflop and turn play are debatable, the part of the hand that confused me was his flop call. I cannot think of any logical argument for it. He is never winning at that point, and the only draws he has are backdoor draws, needing two cards to complete perfectly for him.
Such is the nature of poker that this time it worked out for him. Although it left me slightly confused and $100 worse off, I’m perfectly happy for him to make illogical calls like that, knowing that long-term I will profit.
Take some time
So next time you’re playing, just take a little longer before you make your decisions. Can you justify what you’re about to do? If so, then great, go ahead and win some money. If not, then maybe it’s about time to take a step back and have a good think about your game.
