Small Pocket Pairs: Part 3
OK, you’ve decided to see a flop with a small pocket pair; what exactly are your chances? No matter what pair you are holding the odds of flopping a set or even quads are 7.1 to 1 against you.
So what question should you be asking yourself before you make the call? It might seem obvious to simply ask yourself: “Is this hand worth playing if I am going to lay it down after 6 out of 7 flops?” You will nearly always fold to any bet after the flop when you pair does not improve. But the question is too simplistic for a good poker decision. Why? Well you might be laying it down 6 out of 7 times but if each of those hands cost you a single bet, then you have to ask: “How many bets will I win when I do hit my set?”
The key to winning when your small pocket pair turns into a set is simply that your hand will be well disguised. For example: you play 44 and there are two other players in the hand. The flop comes: A94. If even one of those other two player has a ace, you are going to make a lot with your baby set and if they get another ace on the turn or river, Jackpot! They have a set of aces and you have a full house!
-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #148
