Here is another statistic about the pocket aces. At a full table of ten players there is a 1 in 22 chance that on any random deal one player will be dealt aces. Now since only one time in ten are those aces going to be yours, how can you use this statistic?

Well let’s think about this. When you are dealt pocket kings, there is a one in twenty-two chance you are facing pocket aces. Ouch! On the other hand, twenty-one times out of twenty-two you have those monster kings and you need to win some chips with those Big Boys.

Now be careful with this statistic (22 to 1) because … well let me show you. (Note: what follows is the faulty application of statistics)

If there is a 22-1 chance of aces when you have kings.

Would there be an 11-1 chance of aces or kings against you when you have queens?

Or would there be a 5.5-1 chance of aces, kings or queens against your pocket jacks.

Then it would be 2.75-1 that your pocket tens are beat by a larger pair.

You see where this is going? By the time you get to pocket eights, it would statistically guaranteed that there is a bigger pair out against you and you would never win with two deuces. NOT TRUE! Statistics can be our friends but be careful of stringing them out too far or you might actually believe that the poker gods really do hate you 54% of the time.

-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #150

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