Poker Statistic #5
In this mathematical comparison we look at a common showdown situation where the players share one big card, usually an ace, but they have different kickers. The classic confrontation is AK against AQ. In this case the AK is 72% to win and there is a 5% chance of a tie. However, as the value of the kicker goes down, the chance of the tie goes up. So, for instance, K5 versus K4 carries a 44% chance of a tie and a split pot.
This is sometimes referred to as the “Ax statistic” because an ace with nearly any other card is as likely to win against the bigger ace (about 23%). Meaning if you get it in with A3 against AK, you are just as likely to win as when you have the AQ against the AK; the only advantage of the bigger kicker is when it plays and the amount that it lowers the tie factor.
-this is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #194
