Hold’em Odds: After the Flop with a Pocket Pair
Here are a few more percentages worth knowing when you start the hand with a pocket pair. These are all ‘after the flop’ odds for Texas Hold’em.
What are my chances of flopping a set when I have a pocket pair?
Well there are two cards out of the remaining 50 cards to give you a set and you have three chances to hit those cards. It works out to 11.76% chance of hitting your set or 88.24% chance that you won’t.
OK, same pocket pair; what are the chances I will flop a full house?
Two ways to do this, you flop one more for your set and another pair or the board flops three of a kind. The odds work out to 137 to 1 or about o.7%. Oh and by the way, you have a better chance of winning with your set and another pair because if the board is three of a kind then both a bigger pair and the quads beat you.
Speaking of quads. My chances of my pocket pair flopping quads?
Slim. Or exactly 0.245%, be sure to check it if you get it and maintain that poker face.
OK, back to reality. I have that pocket pair, what are my chances of making a set by the river?
Somewhat better. Remember you have seen 5 of your potential 7 cards after the flop and you had 11.76% odds of flopping the set. After seeing the turn and the river cards, your odds go up to 19% of having that set.
-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #48
