Odds on the Flush Draw
There are some very good poker books that will tell you starting a Texas Hold’em hand with two suited cards is the most dangerous situation in the game. They say this because odds to the flush draw are perhaps the most misunderstood math in Hold’em. Here is the simple and “factual” math of the flush draw.
If you hold two suited cards, your odds of flopping a flush are 1 in 199 or 0.84%. This number considers that you have 2 of the 13 of the suit and must now flop 3 of the remaining 11 cards in that suit. You have an 11 in 50 change on the first flop card, 10 in 49 on the second (assuming you hit the first card) and 9 in 48 on the last to complete the flopped flush. Not great odds.
What is more likely to happen, at least for you to consider staying in the hand; you will flop a flush draw. Two suited cards in your hand and two more on the flop. You have an 8 to 1 chance of that happening or 10.9%. Still not great but thirteen times more likely than flopping the completed flush.
Here is the number you should commit to memory. If you flop a flush draw with two of the suit in your hand and two on the board, you have a 35% chance of making your flush by the river. You can make your betting calculations based on 35% with great accuracy.
One more bit of flush trivia. When you are playing non-suited cards, you still have a 2.24% chance to flop a flush draw, when the board comes with three of either of your two suits.
-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #49
