Some Flop Odds
Sometimes you see a flop with two unsuited, unpaired, even unconnected cards. You might be speculating but more often then not you are simply playing your blind in an unraised pot. Not matter how you got there, you might want to consider your odds of turning that trash hand into a winner.
Let’s say you see the flop with the 3 of clubs and the 10 of hearts, what are the odds that you will flop “at least a pair”? Meaning you flop a pair or two pair or even trips. Well this might surprise you but the yours are over 32%! Nearly one-third of the time you will hit ‘at least’ a pair. Here is where it gets dangerous. You must assume the other player or players in the hand starting with better hands than you. So even though you now have ‘at least’ a pair; you must consider what they have.
What about playing those rag cards and flopping two pair?
Well that 32% we mentioned above is mostly about flopping one pair. 29% of the time you flop one pair and only 2% of the flops give you two pair. But when you do flop two pair, you are very often way out front in the hand and no one suspects you have hit that awful flop.
Be careful there is a big difference between flopping two pair by pairing both of your hole cards and only pairing one of your cards and having the board pair. For instance, you start with 3c 6h and the flop is 3d 6c Kh; that is the 2% of the time you have flopped two pair. But what if the flop was: 3d Kd Kh; you have two pair but it is a much weaker hand because everyone gets those two kings.
You will flop trips just over 1% of the time with two non-paired hole cards and the magical, monster, flopped full house will happen much less than once in a blue moon or about 0.09% of the time.
-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #50
