Turn & River Odds
You have hit part of the flop and need to make your hand with the turn or river cards. What are the odds? These are perhaps the most underused numbers by beginning players and they are the most important odds when making decisions about calling bets on a drawing hand.
You have four cards to the flush. The odds that you will make your flush are: 19% on the turn and a cumulative 35% by the river. You are better than 1 in 3 to flush out by the river, now you can decide if calling that raise is the wise move mathematically.
The other common decision is whether or not to proceed when you have an open-ended straight draw (5678 for example); any 4 or any 9 will make your straight. Odds are that you will make your hand 17% on the turn and 32% on the river. It is good to remember that you have slightly better odds to make a flush than an open-ended straight draw. The odds are exactly half as good 8.5% and 16% if you are drawing to the inside straight (56 89).
The full house draw is a bit trickier because you have two different scenarios. You could have a set on the flop and be looking to pair up for the full house or you could have flopped two pair and need one more of either pair for the boat. There are better odds when you start with the set. A set will become a full house by the river 33% of the time but two pair only “boat up” by the river at a rate of 17%. If this one doesn’t make sense, you need to layout a hand and count the “outs” to the full house. Really, if you can visualize the cards then all of this “odds” math is much easier to remember.
-This is Beginner’s Poker Blog Post #51
